IEA trims 2030 clean hydrogen outlook by 25%

The 2030 clean hydrogen outlook has been trimmed by the International Energy Agency by nearly a quarter. It follows the IEA’s annual Global Hydrogen Review and points to the hydrogen sector experiencing a few teething problems in the first half of this year. The report lays the blame on a wave of cancellations, cost pressures, and policy uncertainty in the United States in particular. However, all is not lost, and the hydrogen sector can take solace in the fact that roughly 37 million metric tons per year of the low-carbon fuel is expected to be produced by 2030.

Progress in the hydrogen sector is lower than expected, as stated by the IEA

Once you understand how prevalent hydrogen is in the universe, you can see why the energy sector globally has such a proclivity for the clean hydrogen sector. Reports from the IEA state that the global pipeline for low-emissions projects has shrunk, but robust expansion is still expected.

The 2025 edition of the IEA’s annual Global Hydrogen Review stated that “Worldwide hydrogen demand increased to almost 100 million tonnes in 2024, up 2% from 2023 and in line with overall energy demand growth”.

Despite the proclivity for the traditional coal and gas-powered sites in the United States, several other countries have embraced the potential that hydrogen presents to the world. The majority of the hydrogen produced, ironically, comes from the fossil fuels sector.

What is worrying is that the vast majority of those sites do not have adequate measures in place to capture the associated emissions.

The International Energy Agency still views hydrogen as a potential “fuel of the future” despite the low numbers

Crucially for the hydrogen sector, projects that are in the operational, under construction, or have reached a final investment phase are set to increase more than fivefold from 2024 levels to more than 4 million tonnes per year.

That increase could become more substantial if effective policies to ensure demand are implemented. The IEA states that an additional 6 million tonnes per year could become operational by 2030. If that happens, growth in the hydrogen sector is a certainty, as opposed to a possibility.

“Investor interest in hydrogen jumped at the start of this decade thanks to its potential to help countries deliver on their energy goals. The latest data indicates that the growth of new hydrogen technologies is under pressure due to economic headwinds and policy uncertainty, but we still see strong signs that their development is moving ahead globally. To help growth continue, policy makers should maintain support schemes, use the tools they have to foster demand, and expedite the development of necessary infrastructure.” – IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol

The American energy sector has embraced the potential that hydrogen presents to the world, with several crucial projects receiving the backing of the federal government recently. China plays an integral role in the hydrogen sector, too. They are currently home to nearly 60% of the world’s electrolyser manufacturing capacity.

Despite the trimming of the expectations for hydrogen this year, the forecast for the future remains bright

Yes, the 25% reduction in expectations is a worrying sign of the current state of the global economy; however, the forecast for hydrogen usage for the next few years is as bright and welcoming as a Hawaiian sunrise. The United States has welcomed the innovative technology that hydrogen brings to the energy table, as proven by the immense tax credit implemented recently by the US Department of the Treasury. So it would appear that hydrogen is here to stay, and we can expect more innovative projects to be revealed in the not-too-distant future. The world is edging ever closer to a future without the need for the fossil fuel sector.