Most people don’t usually think about how much in advance the choices we make on offshore energy are going to affect the costs, policies, and pressures on their everyday lives. However, another quiet movement by BOEM brings to light a subtle question about what may happen next in the industry, and how background decisions will have repercussions for the future.
A new landscape begins to take shape
BOEM’s announcements on offshore leasing typically send out ripples that feel very remote, as if they belong to some sort of separate world of maps and technical assessments. However, the recent announcement of a formal step to evaluate offshore oil and gas leasing along the California coastline seems to hint at something bigger. The slow-forming changes invite us to consider what could potentially be occurring beneath the surface.
BOEM has opened a formal evaluation for offshore oil and gas leasing along the California coast. While this announcement does not provide clarity on what will ultimately happen, it represents the first legitimate opportunity to explore how the 11th National OCS Program is developing. BOEM’s announcement is not a drastic leap forward; however, it is a cautious realignment of expectations that have been formed.
As BOEM develops a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS), the intent of the PEIS will begin to clearly emerge. BOEM believes that the initial phase will be a key indicator of how future offshore activities could develop. Although BOEM cannot confirm what will occur, it is clear that the question may be more complicated than initially perceived.
BOEM begins to quietly build tension
The environmental review initiated by BOEM is not simply a procedural formality. The review provides a 30-day window of opportunity for all stakeholders to provide their input regarding the potential development of these areas. The fact that the review process includes a 30-day window indicates the significance of the issue under consideration. Behind the process exists an underlying reality: California is currently dealing with the persistent issue of energy affordability.
Energy affordability contributes to the emotional intensity associated with what would normally appear to be routine administrative procedures.
It is the size of the planning areas, including the vast expanse of the Outer Continental Shelf that each area encompasses, that explains why the decision-making process is so important. There are billions of barrels of technically recoverable oil and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas located beneath these waters. These numbers quietly increase the breadth of the issue and suggest a potential effect that extends beyond a single policy modification.
There is no guarantee that the opportunity for offshore leasing will exist
Offshore leasing is still only a possibility and not a certainty, and that ambiguity creates the perception that something significant may or may not result from these efforts. It is that delicate balance – between the huge potential and cautious approach to developing those plans – that maintains an interest in this issue.
Revealing what BOEM’s next steps really mean
Ultimately, it is during this last stage of the process when the true underlying answer emerges: BOEM’s decisions are not authorizing leases, but instead are establishing the parameters for how future decisions will be made.
BOEM’s environmental assessment and the comments received in response to that assessment will serve as the basis for evaluating proposed lease sales expected to occur as early as 2027. All prior steps were essentially preparation for that event.
By defining the scope of environmental impacts and specifying which areas will be excluded or conditioned, BOEM is essentially outlining the bounds of what the 11th National OCS Program can become. In addition to affecting the California coastline, the implications of BOEM’s current work will extend far beyond the shoreline. The decisions made today will quietly affect debates regarding energy, the environment, and policy in the years ahead.
