Brent crude settles near $118 as US-Iran military uncertainty and Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks push oil to a fourth consecutive monthly gain
Oil ended October near multiyear highs, with Brent crude futures settling close to $118 a barrel on Friday and West Texas Intermediate closing above $104. Both benchmarks posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain — a streak driven less by supply fundamentals than by the fog of geopolitics.
The catalyst: deepening uncertainty over whether Washington will resume military strikes against Iran, and a fresh wave of tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which a significant share of the world’s seaborne crude passes.
Oil prices record fourth monthly gain as Brent nears $118
Brent December futures settled near $118 a barrel on Friday, marking a six-month high. Four straight monthly gains for the global benchmark. That’s not a market trading on barrels — it’s a market trading on risk.
Heading into next week’s US midterms, polls show voters are unhappy with the administration’s handling of the Iran conflict and with rising living costs.
WTI closed above $104, though it trimmed those gains after settlement. The trigger was a comment from President Trump, who told reporters that peace talks with Iran are ongoing and that “we have time, frankly.” That was enough for traders to unwind some of the hedges they’d built against a potential escalation over the weekend. Brent’s more-active January contract also eased on the remarks.
Still, both benchmarks finished October well above where they started — which tells you how much geopolitical anxiety has been baked into crude over the past month.
Geopolitical tensions over Iran and Hormuz drive market risk premium
Trump has repeatedly threatened to restart airstrikes on Iran after next week’s midterm elections. On Thursday, a top US military commander briefed the president on available military options, according to the Wall Street Journal. That briefing alone was enough to keep traders on edge heading into the weekend.
Diplomatic channels are open but haven’t produced results. A Qatari delegation — led by a senior adviser to Qatar’s prime minister — traveled to Tehran on Friday for talks with Iranian officials, IRNA, Iran’s state-run news agency, reported.
Despite those efforts, senior Iranian officials sent a clear signal that Tehran won’t bend. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Islamic Republic’s positions on ending the war would not be compromised. His remarks came after Tehran confirmed it had received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance — a move the Wall Street Journal reported as an attempt to revive peace negotiations.
Two tanker attacks near Hormuz heighten supply disruption fears
Even as diplomacy sputters, the physical threat to oil flows has escalated. Two separate tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz rattled shipping markets this week and reinforced the risk premium already built into crude prices.
In the first, a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile during an outbound transit on Thursday. The second was more deliberate: a small boat approached a tanker and attached explosive devices directly to its hull, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations.
US Central Command’s Admiral Brad Cooper offered broader context in a post on X, noting that the US has helped Gulf partners export 1.5 billion barrels of crude out of the region since the summer. That volume underscores exactly how much is at stake if hostilities keep escalating around the world’s most critical energy chokepoint.
Low inventories, Russian refinery strikes, and SPR releases add further pressure
The geopolitical story has been amplified by tight fundamentals. Low global inventories and constrained refined product supplies have given oil prices an additional floor, making the market more sensitive to any disruption — real or anticipated.
European diesel futures edged higher this week after Ukrainian forces struck a refinery in Russia’s Samara region. The attack followed a roughly two-week pause that had allowed partial recovery of Russia’s refining operations. Moscow carried out its own overnight strike against Ukraine in response.
The Trump administration awarded contracts for nearly 41 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve on Friday — the latest move aimed at cooling fuel costs for American consumers ahead of the midterms. ANZ strategists Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari flagged the elections as “the next major geopolitical catalyst for oil markets,” warning that “the possibility of renewed hostilities after the vote has increased uncertainty around an already fragile physical market.”
Midterm elections and inconclusive Israeli vote prolong market uncertainty
Heading into next week’s US midterms, polls show voters are unhappy with the administration’s handling of the Iran conflict and with rising living costs. That political pressure may explain some of the diplomatic signaling from Washington, but it hasn’t given markets a clear policy direction to price in.
Israel’s election added its own layer of ambiguity. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s bloc secured 53 seats, ahead of the main opposition’s 48 — but short of the majority needed to govern without additional backing. The country’s political future remains unresolved.
“The inconclusive election result is going to prolong uncertainty over the conflict with Iran, rather than meaningfully reducing the risk of renewed escalation,” said Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered.
What’s driving oil prices — and what comes next
October’s crude rally tells a pretty consistent story. Brent and WTI both posted four straight monthly gains — not because supply fundamentals demanded it, but because the geopolitical backdrop kept pushing traders toward worst-case scenarios. Iranian officials refusing to compromise, tanker attacks near Hormuz, military briefings at the White House, unresolved elections on two continents — each factor added a layer of uncertainty that markets translated into higher prices. Until the diplomatic picture clarifies, analysts expect volatility to stay elevated well beyond the US midterm vote.
Kelly is an experienced writer with 15 years of experience exploring the big stories that shape our world, from tech breakthroughs and space exploration to climate, energy, and the fascinating quirks of science. She has a talent for turning complex ideas into sharp, memorable insights that stay with readers long after they’ve finished reading.
