EIA reports U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels for week ending September 25
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels for the week ending September 25, reaching 427.3 million barrels — about 2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. The Energy Information Administration published the figure in its October 1 weekly petroleum status report. The catch: analysts had widely expected a draw, not a build.
EIA weekly report shows crude stock increase
The EIA put commercial crude inventories at 427.320 million barrels on September 25, up from 426.398 million the prior week — a 0.2 percent week-on-week gain. Year over year, stocks are up 2.6 percent; the comparable figure for September 26, 2025 was 416.546 million barrels.
That 2 percent premium over the five-year average is worth paying attention to. It means that despite ongoing concerns about global supply tightness, the U.S. crude buffer is still holding. The report covered data through September 25 and landed on October 1.
Commercial crude inventories edged higher — surprising analysts who had called for a draw — driven largely by lower refinery runs and a dip in weekly imports.
Refinery activity and imports declined during the same week
So where did the build come from? Two things stand out: refineries pulled back, and imports dropped.
U.S. refineries processed 16.3 million barrels per day during the week — down 554,000 barrels per day from the prior week. Capacity utilization fell to 92.5 percent. When refineries run less crude, more of it stays in storage instead of moving through the system.
Crude oil imports also slipped, falling 179,000 barrels per day to 5.7 million barrels per day. The four-week average of 6.4 million barrels per day is still 4.8 percent above year-ago levels, though. One weak week doesn’t make a trend. Gasoline production averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, while distillate production fell to 5.0 million barrels per day — lower refinery throughput being the clearest reason crude ended up sitting in tanks rather than getting processed.
Gasoline and distillate inventories fell; total petroleum stocks declined
The crude build doesn’t tell the whole story. Across the broader petroleum complex, inventories actually shrank.
Gasoline stocks fell 1.7 million barrels and now sit 7 percent below the five-year average. Distillate inventories dropped a steeper 2.3 million barrels, leaving them 14 percent below the five-year average. Both figures point to real tightness in refined products, even as crude builds.
Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.0 million barrels for the week. Zoom out to all petroleum categories combined, and total stocks stood at 1.528 billion barrels on September 25 — down 167.0 million barrels year on year. One outlier worth noting: propane and propylene inventories rose 1.8 million barrels, landing 20 percent above the five-year average, a meaningful cushion heading into heating season.
Market analysts note price pressure and supply risks
The inventory build caught markets off guard.
Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, noted in a market analysis sent to Rigzone that oil prices were easing as Gulf crude exports recovered and U.S. inventories unexpectedly increased. Improved Saudi export flows through alternative routes were cited as another factor reducing the immediate scarcity premium in prices.
Aslam wasn’t ready to call it a normal market, though. “This is not yet a normal supply environment,” he said, flagging that Middle East flows remain vulnerable, tanker risks persist around the Strait of Hormuz, and global supply data still show a market running on unusually small buffers.
The build also landed well outside Wall Street’s expectations. Macquarie strategists — including energy strategist Walt Chancellor — had forecast a 2.2 million barrel draw for the week ending September 25. The actual outcome swung roughly 3 million barrels in the opposite direction. The team had already flagged cargo timing as a persistent source of noise in weekly crude balance figures, noting that import and export flow timing, along with SPR releases, can shift weekly numbers in ways that don’t reflect underlying supply trends.
SPR and broader demand context
While commercial crude stocks rose, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve kept declining.
SPR stocks stood at 283.8 million barrels on September 25, down from 284.6 million the prior week — a 0.3 percent week-on-week decrease. The year-on-year comparison is starker: SPR holdings were 406.7 million barrels in late September 2025, meaning the reserve has dropped 30.2 percent over the past year.
Demand looks reasonably healthy by comparison. Total product supplied averaged 20.8 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up 2.1 percent year over year. Jet fuel demand stood out — its four-week average rose 6.5 percent year over year, a sign that air travel is still supporting fuel consumption. Distillate product supplied climbed 5.2 percent on the same basis.
What the numbers add up to
The week ending September 25 sent mixed signals for U.S. petroleum markets. Commercial crude inventories edged higher — surprising analysts who had called for a draw — driven largely by lower refinery runs and a dip in weekly imports. Refined product stocks tightened further, and total petroleum inventories fell sharply on both a weekly and annual basis.
The SPR’s continued drawdown adds a longer-term layer to the supply picture, even as near-term crude stocks look relatively comfortable. Analysts are staying cautious about geopolitical risks in key shipping corridors. Whether this week’s crude build holds or reverses is a question the EIA’s next weekly report will answer.
Kelly is an experienced writer with 15 years of experience exploring the big stories that shape our world, from tech breakthroughs and space exploration to climate, energy, and the fascinating quirks of science. She has a talent for turning complex ideas into sharp, memorable insights that stay with readers long after they’ve finished reading.
