EIA projects U.S. crude oil output to reach record 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026
Image generated with artificial intelligenceU.S. crude oil production is on track to set a new annual record. The Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects output will average 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026 — topping the previous record of 13.7 million b/d set just last year.
EIA forecasts new U.S. crude oil production record for 2026
The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook makes it official: U.S. crude oil output will average 13.8 million barrels per day across all of 2026. That’s a modest but meaningful step beyond the 13.7 million b/d record set in 2025, and it shows American production capacity keeps pushing into new territory.
The numbers through the first half of 2026 already back that up. Production averaged 13.7 million b/d in the first six months of the year — a 2% increase, roughly 0.3 million b/d — compared to the same period in 2025. That early momentum puts the full-year average well within reach.
Output in the Gulf rose by 0.2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025 — a 10% increase that’s hard to overlook.
Growth isn’t spread evenly across the country. Two regions are doing most of the heavy lifting: the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, and the Federal Gulf of Mexico. Together, they account for the bulk of the production gains driving the new record forecast.
Higher oil prices driving Permian expansion
The Permian region is the engine of U.S. oil growth, and higher crude prices are the fuel. West Texas Intermediate crude prices rose from an average of $65 per barrel in 2025 to $84 per barrel through August 2026 — a significant jump that clears the bar for profitable drilling across the basin.
Oil industry executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in March reported average breakeven prices of $69 per barrel in the Midland Basin and $63 per barrel in the Delaware Basin, the two largest basins within the Permian. At $84 per barrel, producers are operating well above those thresholds.
When prices exceed breakeven costs by that kind of margin, it supports more oil-directed drilling. More drilling means more production. The results show up clearly in the forecast.
The EIA projects Permian production will average 6.8 million barrels per day in 2026 — a 3% increase from 2025. That single region alone accounts for roughly half of total U.S. crude output, making its performance central to any national record.
New Gulf of Mexico projects add to output gains
While the Permian grabs most of the attention, the Federal Gulf of Mexico is also contributing meaningfully to the 2026 production story. Output in the Gulf rose by 0.2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025 — a 10% increase that’s hard to overlook.
That jump didn’t happen by accident. Four major new projects came online in the Gulf over the past year, driving the bulk of that first-half gain. Offshore development timelines are long and capital-intensive, so when multiple projects reach production simultaneously, the impact on output can be substantial.
Four additional, smaller projects are expected to come online before the end of 2026. They won’t match the scale of the major projects, but they’ll add to the total.
For the full year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts Gulf of Mexico production will grow 3%, or about 0.1 million barrels per day. It’s a smaller percentage contribution than the Permian — but in a market where every barrel counts, it adds up.
Hurricane season poses limited but noted risk to Gulf output
Any forecast involving Gulf of Mexico production has to account for hurricane season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, overlapping directly with the period when these new offshore projects are ramping up.
A significant storm could disrupt production timelines, damage infrastructure, or force temporary shutdowns. The EIA acknowledges this risk in its outlook, though the agency doesn’t build a major hurricane disruption into its base forecast.
There’s some reason for optimism. Colorado State University’s latest forecast calls for below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026, citing El Niño conditions as the primary driver. El Niño tends to increase wind shear in the Atlantic, which inhibits storm development and reduces the likelihood of major hurricanes forming.
If that forecast holds, the main downside risk to Gulf production targets stays manageable. Seasonal forecasts carry their own uncertainty, though — and a single major storm can reshape the picture quickly.
Edging past the 13.7 million b/d mark set
Here’s where things stand heading into the second half of 2026. The EIA projects U.S. crude oil production will average 13.8 million barrels per day for the full year — a new annual record, edging past the 13.7 million b/d mark set in 2025. First-half output has already averaged 13.7 million b/d, keeping the forecast on track.
The Permian Basin is the primary driver, with production expected to average 6.8 million b/d in 2026, supported by WTI prices well above regional breakeven costs. The Federal Gulf of Mexico adds to the gains, with four major new projects already producing and four more expected before year’s end.
The main wildcard is hurricane activity in the Gulf. Current seasonal forecasts point to a quieter-than-normal season, which would reduce disruption risk — but that’s a variable the EIA is watching, not counting on.
Kelly is an experienced writer with 15 years of experience exploring the big stories that shape our world, from tech breakthroughs and space exploration to climate, energy, and the fascinating quirks of science. She has a talent for turning complex ideas into sharp, memorable insights that stay with readers long after they’ve finished reading.
