The revival of the global nuclear energy sector has been music to the ears of investors. Global forecasts predict several scenarios that paint a pretty picture for the nuclear sector over the coming years as the market is set to grow significantly. Following nearly three decades of stagnation, nuclear energy is making a triumphant comeback. This astonishing surge of new reactor construction has been led by several nations, such as Japan and the United States of America, marking a new era of energy powered by the nuclear sector.
The International Energy Agency has released its World Energy Outlook
The IEA recently released its latest version of the essential World Energy Outlook report, and it is painting a positive forecast for the surge of nuclear energy generation taking place all over the world. The report states, among many things, that following two decades of stagnation, a new surge of reactor construction is driving the nuclear sector towards astonishing increases in energy generation capacity.
“A record high in nuclear power output is expected in 2025. Technology advances – particularly in small modular reactors (SMRs) – are improving the outlook for nuclear power. As demand surges and the need for reliable, low-emissions baseload electricity increases, nuclear is increasingly seen as a critical part of a secure, affordable and diverse electricity mix.” – IEA’s World Energy Outlook report
The report states that approximately 40 countries across the energy biosphere now have nuclear energy in their national strategies and are taking steps to develop new projects. The report states that the global nuclear energy generating capacity is set to increase from current levels of around 420 GWe to an astonishing 728 GWe in 2050, based on a specific scenario presented as part of the World Energy Outlook report.
The report from the IEA presents three possible scenarios for the nuclear energy sector
The first scenario that the report presents is known as the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). In it, the report provides an outlook based on the latest policy settings by nations that have nuclear energy capacity, including energy, climate, and related industrial policies. With the report stating, “Globally, nuclear power output doubles [to 784 GWe] to 2050 in the STEPS, maintaining a stable 9% share of electricity generation”.
The next possible scenario is the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), which outlines the growth potential of the nuclear energy sector through the policies already in place that nations have established. This has some promise, as the market has been growing under these policies up until now, but new investments are needed to increase the capacity further.
The last and possibly most interesting scenario presented by the IEA is the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE). This scenario imagines a path to reduce global energy-related emissions, which have been a major problem affecting the environment and our collective future on the planet. As the US sees its revival of the nuclear sector reaching new milestones, the outlook for the sector is looking good, regardless of which scenario one might prefer.
Investments in the nuclear energy sector have grown substantially
Over the past five years, investments in the global nuclear energy market have grown by as much as 70%. The increase in demand for clean energy that does not rely on the traditional oil and gas sectors has been a major driver for the nuclear and renewable energy market overall. Billion-dollar investments in the nuclear energy sector have been popping up around the world, such as the project in North Wales with its flagship SMR program. The IEA notes that more investments are needed to maintain the growth of the market over the coming decades if the nuclear energy revival is to reach a tipping point.
