Indian and Chinese refiners accelerate Middle Eastern crude purchases as Dubai futures near $100 a barrel

Indian and Chinese refiners — the world’s two largest oil importers — have sharply stepped up spot purchases of Middle Eastern crude in early September, competing with South Korean and Japanese buyers for supplies under growing strain. The buying spree has pushed Dubai benchmark futures to nearly $100 a barrel, the highest level since May 2026, while physical premiums for Oman and Murban crude have also surged.

Buying surge pushes Dubai crude to near $100 a barrel

Indian Oil Corp. and PetroChina have been among the most aggressive buyers in recent days. Traders familiar with the matter say IOC has accelerated spot purchases of Persian Gulf crude, while PetroChina recently bought millions of barrels from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE on the open market. Both companies declined to comment when contacted.

The buying pressure hit prices fast. Dubai benchmark futures climbed to nearly $100 a barrel — the highest level since May 2026, a sharp move for a market that had been trading well below that threshold just weeks earlier.

They’re now competing more directly with Indian, South Korean, and Japanese refiners for the same Persian Gulf barrels — pushing prices higher in the process.

Physical premiums moved right along with it. Oman and Murban crude both saw their spot premiums surge alongside the futures rally. Abu Dhabi’s Murban now commands a premium of more than $30 a barrel over Dubai for delivery to East Asia, according to traders — at least $10 more than the delivered cost of West Texas Intermediate shipped from the US. That gap tells you exactly how tight regional supply has gotten.

US-Iran hostilities and tanker attacks constrain Middle Eastern supply

This buying surge didn’t come out of nowhere. Escalating US-Iran tensions have cast a shadow over Persian Gulf crude supplies, and refiners are genuinely worried about reliable access to the barrels they need to keep plants running.

Late in August, attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted cargo flows through one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints. Iran and its proxies, including Yemen’s Houthis, have been linked to the disruptions. Traders are watching closely for knock-on effects as more data comes in about how much those attacks actually reduced volumes.

An estimated 6 to 8 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude flowed through the strait last week. The recent attacks may have cut into that figure — and even uncertainty around the exact impact is enough to keep buyers on edge.

There’s another piece adding to the squeeze. A US blockade has curbed Iranian crude shipments to China, narrowing a channel that Chinese buyers had relied on for cost-effective feedstock. They’re now competing more directly with Indian, South Korean, and Japanese refiners for the same Persian Gulf barrels — pushing prices higher in the process.

Saudi exports fall to record lows as cargo delays mount

The supply picture gets even tighter when you look at Saudi Arabia. Observed crude exports from the world’s biggest oil exporter have plunged to their lowest level in records going back to early 2017, according to tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg, Vortexa, and Kpler. That data point is feeding directly into the price pressure refiners face right now.

The delays are already hitting buyers. At least two Indian refiners have seen August cargoes pushed back into September or October, forcing procurement teams to scramble for replacement barrels on the spot market — which only stacks more demand pressure on a market that doesn’t need it.

With supply this constrained, prices stay vulnerable. Murban’s premium of more than $30 a barrel over Dubai, and at least $10 over WTI delivered from the US, reflects how much refiners are willing to pay just to lock in reliable volumes. There’s very little slack left to absorb another disruption.

Broader purchasing patterns reflect urgency across Asia-Pacific refiners

The rush for Middle Eastern crude isn’t just an India-China story. South Korean and Japanese buyers are competing actively for Persian Gulf barrels too, adding another layer of demand to a market already stretched thin.

Chinese buyers have cast a particularly wide net. Facing tighter access to Iranian crude and surging Middle Eastern prices, they’ve sourced oil from Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. Some UK Forties blend is reportedly headed to Sinochem — an unusual destination for a North Sea grade, and a clear sign of how far buyers are reaching to fill their needs.

Rising refinery run rates in China are a key structural driver. Higher throughput means refineries need more crude feedstock, consistently, and that demand isn’t going away anytime soon.

On the Indian side, private mega-refiner Reliance Industries may join further buying rounds, according to traders who asked not to be named given the sensitivity of the matter. Reliance didn’t respond to a request for comment, so that stays unconfirmed — but if it does materialize, it adds yet another major buyer to an already competitive market.

The situation is fairly straightforward: Middle Eastern crude is in high demand and short supply. Dubai futures near $100 a barrel, record-low Saudi exports, delayed cargoes, and tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have combined to create a genuinely tight market. Asian refiners are responding by buying aggressively and sourcing from wherever they can — and right now, prices are reflecting exactly that urgency.

Kelly Lippke

Kelly is an experienced writer with 15 years of experience exploring the big stories that shape our world, from tech breakthroughs and space exploration to climate, energy, and the fascinating quirks of science. She has a talent for turning complex ideas into sharp, memorable insights that stay with readers long after they’ve finished reading.