Policy shifts slash US solar outlook for 2026–30

Recent policy shifts that the Trump administration has pioneered have slashed the United States’ solar outlook for the 2026-30 period. Donald Trump ran on the concept of shifting the existing energy policies to allow for more flexibility and easier regulations for the energy sector overall. While the policy shifts have been welcomed by most in the non-renewable sector, the renewable energy sector has seen a sharp decline in projected operations for the next few years. The solar sector in particular is feeling the inevitable effects of the new administration’s shift towards the good ol’ reliable gas and coal sector.

Despite solar manufacturing remaining strong, the outlook for the sector in the United States does not look good

Solar power remains a crucial form of energy production in the United States, despite the Trump administration’s best efforts to keep the oil and gas sector thriving by implementing several executive orders. Solar power accounted for 82% of all new US generation capacity additions in the first half of 2025. In the same time frame, domestic module production expanded by 13 GW to reach roughly 55 GW of annualized output.

The Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie have released a market update that has the industry shaken. They project that utility-scale and distributed solar installations between 2026 and 2030 will fall by 27%, which is a direct reflection of new policies and executive orders implemented by the current administration.

The new policies force developers to sequence equipment orders and civil works more rigorously

The tighter restrictions and new policies have had a tangible effect on the solar sector and the renewable sector overall, and emphasize procuring long-lead transformers and protection gear early for companies operating in the solar sector. Despite all that bad news, there is a silver lining to this new policy cloud. Despite the rollback being implemented by the Trump administration, the solar sector remains strong, and the report states it is on an upward trajectory.

The Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie report warns that Trump’s policy shift is discouraging investment, raising energy costs, and threatening grid reliability. As energy demand rises, thanks in no small part to the recent rise in AI operations in the United States, the sector has remained steadfast in its importance in the energy industry in America.

The need for a new approach to energy production around the world has accelerated the innovation taking place in the sector. Several celebrities have come out to state their support for a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy. How will the new policy shift affect the transition to more sustainable fuel sources that aim to promote carbon-neutrality?

“Our oil-based society depends on non-renewable resources. It requires relentless probing into vast reaches of pristine land, sacrificing vital bioregions, and irreplaceable cultures…We must all move shoulder to shoulder in a unified front to show this administration that the true majority of people are willing to vote for a cleaner environment and won’t back down.” – Leo Dicaprio, Founder, The Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation

Can the solar sector survive the Trump administration’s efforts to increase traditional energy production

One suspects that an industry as versatile as solar will take the punch on the chin and carry on regardless of the new administration’s policy shift. Several organizations and even a few universities have developed new and innovative solar projects that could accelerate the solar sector beyond what was previously thought possible. For the relevant stakeholders in the sector, the policy change represents a worrying trend in the industry, and they have warned that the rollback of subsidies may discourage investment and overall interest in the American energy sector.