Rystad Flags Main Factor That Was Being Closely Watched by Gas Market

The main factor that was being closely watched by the gas market in recent days was Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

That’s what a gas and LNG market update from Rystad Energy Vice President Wei Xiong stated, highlighting that the hurricane “had the potential to cause interruptions to U.S. LNG production”.

“As the risk associated with the hurricane eased and operations of U.S. liquefaction facilities remained largely unaffected, gas prices at major trading hubs all fell,” the update, which was sent to Rigzone by the Rystad Energy team on Thursday, noted.

“The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price dropped seven percent from €33.685 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on 2 July to €31.335 per MWh on 9 July, while the Asia spot LNG price fell 1.6 percent from $12.56 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to $12.365 per MMBtu over the same timeframe,” it added.

“This also factors in the general softened anticipation for Asian gas demand amid heatwaves in North Asia that has yet to translate to materialized buying from the region’s importers. Healthy supplies and ample inventories at major markets are also placing downsides on gas prices,” it continued.

The update highlighted that front-month Henry Hub prices fell 3.7 percent week on week from $2.435 per MMBtu to $2.344 per MMBtu on 9 July, “the lowest level in the past two weeks”. The note outlined that this was “mainly due to increased supply, while power has been holding relatively steady compared to last summer”.

“U.S. Lower 48 daily dry gas production was still around 100 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in June. U.S. gas storage remains at robust levels, up 32 billion cubic feet (Bcf) week on week to 3,134 Bcf for the week ending 28 June,” the update stated.

“Our balances indicate healthy storage levels this winter, which will keep our Henry Hub forecast lower,” it added.

“The major concern of the week over the impact of Hurricane Beryl on U.S. LNG production has receded,” it went on to state.

The update highlighted that Beryl became a Category 1 hurricane “before landing along the U.S. Gulf Coast” but added that it was “downgraded and weakened throughout 8 July”.

“U.S. liquefaction plants and LNG production were largely unaffected, with only Freeport LNG cutting production over the weekend,” the update said.

“Feedgas flows to Freeport LNG almost vanished to only 8.7 million cubic feet per day on 7 July from nearly 2 Bcfd on 6 July. With lower production, the plant’s utilization on a 30-day moving average fell from 100 percent on 6 July to 98 percent on 7 July,” it added.

“Freeport LNG intended resume operations after the storm had passed, according to an announcement,” it continued.

A release posted on the Office of the Texas Governor’s website on Thursday revealed that Texas Governor Greg Abbott has requested the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Individual Assistance program for 15 counties in response to Hurricane Beryl.

“The State of Texas continues to deploy all resources and assistance needed to help Texans and communities impacted by Hurricane Beryl,” Abbott said in the release.

“Texas has requested 15 counties be approved for FEMA’s Individual Assistance program so Texans have access to additional funding to cover expenses caused by this disaster. I remain in regular contact with Acting Governor Dan Patrick and Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd on Texas’ ongoing response and recovery efforts,” he added.

“We are working around the clock to ensure electrical providers quickly restore power to all Texans. Texas will remain engaged until every Texan recovers from this disaster,” he continued.  

If approved, FEMA’s Individual Assistance program funding would assist with expenses such as temporary housing, emergency home repairs, uninsured and underinsured personal property losses, disaster legal services, disaster unemployment assistance, and medical, dental, and funeral expenses caused by the disaster, the release stated.

In a release posted on the Office of the Texas Governor’s website on Wednesday, Abbott announced that 67 Texas counties had been approved for federal disaster assistance as part of a major disaster declaration approved by the President following impacts to the state from Hurricane Beryl.

The release highlighted that the following counties had been included in the federal disaster declaration: Anderson, Angelina, Aransas, Austin, Bowie, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Calhoun, Cameron, Camp, Cass, Chambers, Cherokee, Colorado, Dewitt, Fayette, Fort Bend, Freestone, Galveston, Goliad, Gregg, Grimes, Hardin, Harris, Harrison, Hidalgo, Houston, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Kenedy, Kleberg, Lavaca, Lee, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Marion, Matagorda, Milam, Montgomery, Morris, Nacogdoches, Newton, Nueces, Orange, Panola, Polk, Refugio, Robertson, Rusk, Sabine, San Augustine, San Jacinto, San Patricio, Shelby, Trinity, Tyler, Upshur, Victoria, Walker, Waller, Washington, Webb, Wharton, and Willacy.

The major disaster declaration allows for reimbursement for up to 75 percent of costs associated with expenses for debris removal and emergency protective measures, the release noted.

“President Biden approved 67 counties for federal disaster assistance after Texas requested a major disaster declaration yesterday,” Abbott said in the release.

“This approval is a critical step forward in our efforts to provide assistance to impacted Texans across the state. I remain in contact with Acting Governor Dan Patrick, Chief Nim Kidd, and other state and local officials on our ongoing response and recovery efforts,” he added.

“Our team is also in regular contact with electrical providers to ensure power is quickly restored to all Texans. I thank Acting Governor Patrick, state officials, emergency management personnel, and first responders for working tirelessly to deliver all necessary aid to our fellow Texans,” he continued.

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