USA Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Drop by Almost 4MM Barrels WoW

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 3.7 million barrels from the week ending July 12 to the week ending July 19, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly petroleum status report.

Crude oil stocks in the U.S., not including the SPR, were at 436.5 million barrels on July 19, 440.2 million barrels on July 12, and 456.8 million barrels on July 21, 2023, the report showed. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 374.4 million barrels on July 19, 373.7 million barrels on July 12, and 346.8 million barrels on July 21, 2023, the report revealed.

Total petroleum stocks in the U.S. – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.665 billion barrels on July 19, the report highlighted. This figure was down 3.9 million barrels week on week and up 42.6 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.

“At 436.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about five percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in its latest report.

“Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.6 million barrels from last week and are about two percent below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels last week and are about nine percent below the five year average for this time of year,” it added.

“Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels from last week and are 15 percent above the five year average for this time of year,” it continued.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day during the week ending July 19, according to the report, which highlighted that this was 521,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.

“Refineries operated at 91.6 percent of their operable capacity last week,” the EIA said in the report.

“Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day,” it added.

The report noted that U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million barrels per day last week. This was a decrease of 166,000 barrels per day from the previous week, the report pointed out.

“Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.8 million barrels per day, 2.9 percent more than the same four-week period last year,” the EIA said in the report.

“Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 778,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 112,000 barrels per day,” it added.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, up by 0.4 percent from the same period last year, the report stated.

“Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.3 million barrels a day, up by 2.5 percent from the same period last year,” the EIA noted in the report.

“Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 3.2 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 3.8 percent compared with the same four-week period last year,” it added.

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Wednesday, Macquarie strategists highlighted that “this week, the EIA reported draws in commercial crude (-3.7 million barrels), Cushing (-1.7 million barrels), gasoline (-5.6 million barrels), and distillate (-2.8 million barrels), with a minor build in jet (+0.1 million barrels)”.

“Within the crude balance, runs declined 0.5 million barrels per day, reflecting increased outages and potential mean reversion from the prior week’s very strong print,” they added.

“Implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+trans.) was a weak 13.3 million barrels per day again, with the trailing four-week average moving to 13.4 million barrels per day nominally; these figures appear significantly higher when adjusted for third-party estimated waterborne flows,” they continued.

The strategists stated in the report that “within products, across the board strength in implied demand/disappearance was the standout this week.”

“Implied demand for gasoline+distillate+jet came in at 15.1 million barrels per day, with the trailing four-week average moving to 14.6 million barrels per day vs. 14.2 million barrels per day for the same four weeks last year,” they added.

“Likewise, total disappearance (implied demand + exports) for those three products was 17.8 million barrels per day, with the trailing four-week average moving to 17.2 million barrels per day vs. 16.8 million barrels per day for the same four weeks last year,” they continued.

“Meanwhile, crude runs stand up 0.4 million barrels per day year on year over the same period,” they went on to state.

The Macquarie strategists also noted in the report that, “as a far too early look ahead at next week’s release”, they see “potential for a similar commercial U.S. crude draw (-4.2 million barrels), pursuant to a minor decrease in runs amidst continued outages, a recovery from a weak nominal implied supply print (+0.6 million barrels per day), offset by a reduction in net imports (-0.7 million barrels per day nominally), and a larger increase in SPR inventory (+1.1 million barrels) on the week”.

“Among products, our preliminary expectations point to draws in gasoline (-1.5 million barrels) and distillate (-1.3 million barrels), with the latter driven by strong exports, and another build in jet (+1.1 million barrels),” they added.

Source: www.rigzone.com