USA Crude Oil Inventories Drop More Than 3MM Barrels WoW

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 3.4 million barrels from the week ending June 28 to the week ending July 5, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly petroleum status report.

Crude oil stocks in the country, not including the SPR, stood at 445.1 million barrels on July 5, 448.5 million barrels on June 28, and 458.1 million barrels on July 7, 2023, the report showed. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 373.1 million barrels on July 5, 372.6 million barrels on June 28, and 346.8 million barrels on July 7, 2023, according to the report.

Total petroleum stocks in the U.S. – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.658 billion barrels on July 7, the report highlighted. This figure was up 3.0 million barrels week on week and up 33.8 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.

“At 445.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about four percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA noted in the report.

“Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels from last week and are one percent below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, while blending components inventories decreased last week,” it added.

“Distillate fuel inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels last week and are about eight percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels from last week and are 12 percent above the five year average for this time of year,” it continued.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.1 million barrels per day during the week ending July 5, according to the report, which highlighted that this was 317,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.

“Refineries operated at 95.4 percent of their operable capacity last week,” the EIA said in the report.

“Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day,” it added.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day last week, the report noted. This figure increased by 214,000 barrels per day from the previous week, the report revealed.

“Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.7 million barrels per day, 5.1 percent more than the same four-week period last year,” the report stated.

“Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 768 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 139,000 barrels per day,” it added.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.9 million barrels a day, up by 3.0 percent from the same period last year, the report said.

“Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.3 million barrels a day, up by 0.4 percent from the same period last year,” it added.

“Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 4.4 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 0.8 percent compared with the same four-week period last year,” it continued.

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, prior to the release of the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down 1.2 million barrels for the week ending July 5.

“This compares to a 12.2 million barrel draw for the week ending June 28, with the total U.S. crude balance realizing only modestly tighter than we had anticipated last week, despite the big draw,” the strategists noted in the report.

“For products, we anticipate continued strength in exports offsetting holiday/seasonal demand impacts this week,” they added.

“Moving to this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model crude runs effectively flat. Among net imports, we model a healthy nominal increase, with exports only slightly lower on a nominal basis and imports significantly higher (+0.5 million barrels per day),” they continued.

The strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remained a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.

“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj. +transfers), we look for a large bounce-back (+1.1 million barrels per day), following a very weak nominal print last week,” they said in the report.

“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a slightly larger increase in SPR inventory (+0.5 million barrels) on the week,” they added.

The strategists also noted in the report that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline model was calling for a draw of 0.3 million barrels.

“Among products, we look for a draw in gasoline (-1.8 million barrels) offset by builds in distillate (+1.7 million barrels) and jet (+0.4 million barrels),” they added.

“Amidst holiday/ seasonal effects, we model implied demand for these three products at ~14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending July 5,” they went on to state.

Source: www.rigzone.com