The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently.
In its June STEO, the EIA is forecasting that the WTI spot price will average $80.32 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $78.75 per barrel in the third quarter, $82.14 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $79.70 per barrel overall in 2024.
In its previous May STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $84.76 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $85.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $84.17 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $83.05 per barrel overall this year.
Both STEOs show that the first quarter 2024 WTI spot price averaged $77.50 per barrel and that the overall 2023 WTI spot price averaged $77.58 per barrel. The June and May STEOs also both project that the WTI spot price will average $83.50 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $81.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $80.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $78.16 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $80.88 per barrel overall in 2025.
In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that the April to May 2024 WTI front month futures price averaged $81.51 per barrel. The April to May 2023 WTI front month futures price averaged $75.27 per barrel and the 2021 to 2023 WTI front month futures price averaged $80.01 per barrel, the EIA’s June STEO showed.
WTI refers to West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), owned by Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group, the EIA noted in its June STEO.
A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell on June 18 revealed that Standard Chartered is forecasting that the nearby future NYMEX WTI basis Cushing, Oklahoma, price will average $95 per barrel in the third quarter and $103 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
The company expects the commodity to average $106 per barrel in 2025, the report revealed.
A report sent to Rigzone by Horsnell on May 14 showed that Standard Chartered Bank had identical price projections for the third and fourth quarter of 2024 and for 2025 overall.
A report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on June 13 revealed that BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, is forecasting that the WTI crude price will average $82 per barrel this year and $79 per barrel next year. In a separate report sent to Rigzone back in March, BMI projected that the WTI crude price would average $82 per barrel in 2024 and $81 per barrel next year.
In a research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on June 13, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI spot price will average $79 per barrel in 2024 and $71 per barrel in 2025. A research note sent to Rigzone on May 20 by the JPM Commodities Research team had identical WTI spot price forecasts.
In another report sent to Rigzone last week by the Morningstar team, analysts at the company said, “on a quarterly basis, oil prices look weak”. The analysts added in the report that they “expect continued weakness, with $65-$70 a barrel (WTI) a likely possibility in 2024, if not lower”.
The Morningstar report noted that “WTI prices look poised to decline” and stated that “WTI prices remain well above midcycle levels”.
Source: www.rigzone.com
