Global energy markets are on edge. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway that handles a significant share of the world’s oil and natural gas flows — has been disrupted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, putting supply chains under mounting pressure.
Against that backdrop, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol traveled to Ottawa this week for a series of high-level meetings with Canadian government leaders. The discussions, which included a sit-down with Prime Minister Mark Carney, centered on the ripple effects of that disruption — and on what comes next.
A chokepoint under pressure
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most consequential waterways. Roughly 20% of global oil trade passes through this narrow passage between Iran and Oman, along with substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas. When shipping traffic through the strait is disrupted, the effects don’t stay regional — they ripple outward across energy markets worldwide, fast.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has done exactly that. Disruptions to Hormuz shipping have introduced significant uncertainty into global supplies of oil, natural gas, and other key commodities. Energy prices respond to uncertainty, and markets have been watching closely. For importing nations, the concern isn’t really about any single shipment — it’s about what prolonged instability could mean for supply reliability over months and years. That scale of disruption is what brought Birol to Canada.
Birol in Ottawa: high-stakes diplomacy
At the center of the Ottawa visit was a bilateral meeting between Birol and Prime Minister Mark Carney. Their conversation focused on the implications of Hormuz disruptions for global oil and natural gas supplies, along with Canada’s own energy landscape — including steps the country is taking to meet rising domestic demand and serve a growing roster of export markets.
Birol also joined Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson for a fireside chat at Canada’s Chamber of Commerce, covering the energy fallout from the Middle East conflict and Canada’s opportunity to expand its export role — not just in response to the current crisis, but looking well beyond it. The two later held a separate bilateral meeting, where discussions turned to reliable energy supply and the development of more diverse critical mineral supply chains.
Canada’s window of opportunity
For Canada, the timing of these conversations matters. Global buyers are actively seeking stable, trustworthy alternatives to supply routes that run through contested geopolitical territory. Canada, with its significant oil, natural gas, and mineral resources, is increasingly part of that conversation.
The Ottawa meetings reflected a broader strategic question: can Canada move quickly enough to translate its resource base into expanded export capacity? Both the Carney meeting and the Hodgson fireside chat touched on steps already underway. Critical minerals — essential for energy transition technologies — add yet another dimension to Canada’s potential contribution, as supply chain diversification becomes a priority for allies and trading partners alike. This isn’t a new ambition, but the current global context has sharpened the urgency considerably.
From Ottawa to Toronto: economics and recognition
Birol’s visit extended beyond the capital. In Toronto, he met with Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne to discuss recent energy market and economic developments in the context of the Middle East conflict — a conversation that underscored how energy security and macroeconomic stability are increasingly difficult to separate.
Birol also participated in the Canada Growth Summit 2026, a high-profile gathering focused on the country’s economic trajectory. Canada’s Public Policy Forum presented him with the Global Laureate Award there, recognizing his contributions to energy security and policy. That recognition placed his Ottawa and Toronto engagements within a longer arc — not simply a reactive visit in a moment of crisis, but part of an ongoing relationship between the IEA and Canadian institutions.
Reliable supply chains in a fractured world
One meeting in particular pointed toward the transatlantic dimension of Canada’s energy ambitions. Birol sat down with Ambassador Jonathan Wilkinson — Canada’s newly appointed ambassador to the European Union and a former Energy and Natural Resources Minister — a pairing that signals active diplomatic groundwork for deeper Canada-Europe energy ties.
Europe has spent the past several years urgently rerouting its energy supply chains away from Russian sources, and Canada has been positioning itself as a long-term alternative. The IEA has consistently pushed for more diversified and resilient global energy systems. Canada’s emerging role fits squarely within that framework.
What to watch next: whether the political momentum generated by this week’s meetings translates into concrete export infrastructure commitments — and how quickly Canada can move from strategic opportunity to reliable supply.
