Iran escalates Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks with new tactics aimed at keeping global oil prices high before US midterm elections
Attacks on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have hit their highest level since the war started, according to US and allied officials — the result of a deliberate tactical shift by Iran that kicked off roughly 10 days ago. The change came from the top of Iranian leadership and has altered both the type and pace of IRGC operations targeting vessels in and around the strait.
The escalation pulls in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, US naval forces, and commercial shipping across the Hormuz region and adjacent waters. Officials are clear: this isn’t happening by accident.
Iran confirms tactical shift in Hormuz shipping attacks
Two Iranian officials confirmed that Tehran changed both the type and pace of its attacks roughly 10 days before this report came out. The decision came from the highest levels of Iranian leadership and was fully coordinated across the country’s ruling system — not a local IRGC call, but a top-down strategic directive.
Since then, Iran has restricted passage through the waterway, severely curtailing traffic and pushing oil prices higher — though some oil has continued to transit.
The data already shows it. Attacks on commercial ships have surged to their highest level since the war began, with at least five incidents involving tankers and other commercial vessels occurring in a single 48-hour window — among them drone strikes tracked by maritime security sources and incidents reported to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency.
The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center has rated the threat to merchant shipping as “severe,” its second-highest level. Its latest report noted that IRGC activity included UAV overflights, targeted surveillance of merchant shipping, and occasional radio hailing of vessels.
Why Iran changed strategy: Oil prices and the US midterm elections
The timing is deliberate. One Iranian official was direct about Tehran’s goal: to “frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices.”
The November midterm elections — which will decide control of Congress — have turned the war’s roughly $3 billion monthly cost into a live campaign issue. Trump has said publicly he won’t launch further strikes against Iran before the vote, and Iranian officials appear to be factoring that window into their calculations. A second official put it bluntly: “Just when they think they are getting close to the point where prices will fall, we will push them away from it. This is a game of chess.” Tehran sees oil prices as leverage and intends to use them.
IRGC uses unarmed spotter boats after US destroys radar capabilities
One of the most significant tactical changes involves how Iran now finds its targets. After US strikes destroyed much of Iran’s radar infrastructure, the IRGC shifted to deploying unarmed spotters in small boats to locate vessels — including US naval ships — and relay targeting information back.
In one previously unreported incident, US forces determined that Iranian spotters were operating from a dhow and calling in targets to the IRGC. The vessel was confronted, its occupants ordered to abandon ship, and then destroyed — no casualties, according to the US military official who disclosed the incident.
Iran’s conventional maritime options remain constrained. Earlier US strikes devastated its navy, and Tehran has been unwilling to risk its remaining fast boats — a reluctance that’s limited its ability to fully block oil exports through the strait, even as harassment and strike activity against commercial shipping intensifies.
Iran expands operational area beyond Hormuz into Gulf of Oman and beyond
Tehran’s new strategy doesn’t stop at the strait. Iranian officials said the geographical scope of operations is expanding to the Gulf of Oman and waters further afield — a meaningful increase in reach that may already be underway. Analysis of incidents reported to UKMTO and regional maritime security companies shows Iranian targeting of ships in waters off the coasts of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, well beyond the Hormuz chokepoint.
One Iranian official made the warning explicit: vessels violating Iran’s restrictions “would be safe nowhere, even outside the Strait of Hormuz.” Both officials also indicated that Tehran is moving toward complete closure of the strait to non-compliant vessels. “It will be complete closure soon,” one said.
What’s at stake: Hormuz, global energy, and the road ahead
The Strait of Hormuz carried approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the conflict began with US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Since then, Iran has restricted passage through the waterway, severely curtailing traffic and pushing oil prices higher — though some oil has continued to transit.
Washington has responded with a naval blockade of Iranian ports and expanded sanctions, pressing Tehran toward a negotiated settlement. The standoff, though, has left global energy markets exposed. Ongoing attack threats, high shipping costs, and elevated insurance premiums keep complicating any return to normal commercial traffic.
With Iran extending its operational reach, deploying new surveillance tactics, and explicitly tying its strategy to US domestic politics, pressure on both sides is building fast. The November elections are six weeks away. Tehran, by its own account, is playing a long game — and it’s betting that oil prices are its strongest card.
Kelly is an experienced writer with 15 years of experience exploring the big stories that shape our world, from tech breakthroughs and space exploration to climate, energy, and the fascinating quirks of science. She has a talent for turning complex ideas into sharp, memorable insights that stay with readers long after they’ve finished reading.
