Rystad Energy projects Venezuela crude output at 1.6 million bpd by 2028 as international operators expand under new contracts
Venezuela’s upstream oil sector is pulling in the widest range of international operators it’s seen in decades — and Rystad Energy has put actual numbers to what that could mean. In an analysis published by Oilfield Technology, the research firm projects Venezuelan crude production reaching roughly 1.6 million barrels per day by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030.
That forecast lands as established majors — Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Shell — expand or re-enter the country alongside new operators. All of them are moving under revised contractual frameworks that are reshaping how international capital flows into Venezuela’s oil sector.
Rystad Energy forecasts Venezuelan production recovery through 2030
The 1.6 million bpd projection for 2028 isn’t a guarantee. It’s conditional. Rystad’s model depends on capital actually being deployed, rigs becoming available, and oilfield services scaling to the required levels — all still works in progress.
“The roster of companies now actively looking to expand or operate in Venezuela is genuinely different from anything we have seen in years,” she said.
The underlying momentum, though, is real. Venezuela is attracting its broadest roster of international operators and capital in decades. Radhika Bansal, Senior VP of Oil and Gas at Rystad Energy, pointed directly to that diversification as a key driver. “The roster of companies now actively looking to expand or operate in Venezuela is genuinely different from anything we have seen in years,” she said. “A wider group of operators should help mobilise the capital and activity needed to rebuild rigs, oilfield services and infrastructure across the entire supply chain.”
More operators, more defined assets, more structured contracts — that combination is what gives the forecast its foundation.
Major operators expand positions; new entrants join under revised contracts
Deal activity over the past year has been significant. Chevron added Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-Sur-A to its Venezuelan portfolio and committed more than $7 billion in investment over five years. Eni took exclusive operatorship of Junin 5 under a new 25-year production participation contract. Repsol regained operational control at Petroquiriquire, while Shell re-entered through redevelopment agreements covering the Carito and Pirital fields.
New entrants are arriving alongside them. Regional independent GeoPark, Texas-based Hunt Oil, and Brazilian independent Fluxus Oil, Gas & Energy have all moved into the country. North American Blue Energy Partners — NABEP — has substantially expanded its existing position through a framework covering 17 producing and development areas.
The pipeline of potential entrants keeps growing. Continental Resources has signed a preliminary agreement for Ayacucho 2. ExxonMobil is in discussions over a possible return, and TotalEnergies has signed an MoU with PDVSA covering new hydrocarbon opportunities. On the services side, Halliburton has signed agreements with Eneva and WESCA to pursue development opportunities in the country.
Rig shortage and infrastructure gaps remain the binding operational constraints
The enthusiasm is real. The drilling capacity, for now, is not.
Baker Hughes reported just two active drilling rigs in Venezuela as of August. The country’s Hydrocarbons Ministry has set a target of around 93 rigs by 2028 — a gap that is, plainly, enormous. Rystad estimates activity needs to reach roughly 50 rigs by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030 just to support the modeled production pathway.
Early signs of rebuilding have emerged. SLB has approximately 15 rigs positioned in Venezuela that could potentially be reactivated within a year — a start, though the oilfield services supply chain as a whole remains in early-stage recovery. Rystad is also careful about framing: the firm favors investment programs tied to established operators and clearly defined assets over broader ambitions that depend on large amounts of external capital still to be secured. On that point, NABEP’s widely cited $100 billion figure represents a long-term funding requirement — not committed near-term capital — and the company hasn’t disclosed a detailed financing structure.
Near-term growth driven by brownfield rehabilitation across existing assets
Don’t expect greenfield megaprojects to lead the early recovery. The incremental barrels in the near term will come from field rehabilitation, well reactivations, and infill drilling at assets that already exist.
Key brownfield contributors include NABEP’s Lake Maracaibo portfolio, Chevron’s Petropiar and Petroboscan assets, Eni’s Corocoro field, and GeoPark’s Bare block. NABEP’s Lake Maracaibo position — built around the former Petrozamora operations previously linked to Russian interests — shows what renewed investment can deliver. Combined production from those assets rose from roughly 90,000 bpd at the end of 2024 to nearly 200,000 bpd currently.
Greenfield-led growth is expected to follow in the 2030s. The anchors there are Chevron’s Ayacucho 8, Eni’s Junin 5, and NABEP’s newly awarded Orinoco blocks. In Rystad’s upside scenario, that combination could push Venezuelan crude production to approximately 2.58 million bpd by 2035, with incremental volumes roughly evenly split between brownfield and greenfield additions.
What the Venezuela forecast adds up to
Rystad Energy‘s projections — 1.6 million bpd by 2028, 1.8 million bpd by 2030, and potentially 2.58 million bpd by 2035 in an upside case — reflect a genuine shift in the investment landscape, not just optimism.
The drivers are concrete: major operators committing capital under revised contracts, new independents entering defined assets, and early brownfield results like NABEP’s Lake Maracaibo turnaround already showing up in production data. The constraints are equally concrete — a rig count that needs to multiply many times over, an oilfield services chain still rebuilding, and capital commitments that in some cases remain aspirational rather than secured.
Venezuela’s recovery pace will ultimately be set by how quickly those operational gaps close. Not by the number of agreements signed.
Kelly is an experienced writer with 15 years of experience exploring the big stories that shape our world, from tech breakthroughs and space exploration to climate, energy, and the fascinating quirks of science. She has a talent for turning complex ideas into sharp, memorable insights that stay with readers long after they’ve finished reading.
