ATB Cormark survey finds 96% of Canadian E&P companies plan to raise production in 2027 as investor sentiment turns bullish
Nearly every Canadian oil and gas producer surveyed this fall plans to increase output in 2027 — and for the first time since the poll launched, institutional investors are putting growth spending ahead of buybacks and debt repayment.
Those are the headline findings from ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Fall 2026 Energy Sector Survey, released October 14. Conducted September 14–28, the semi-annual survey drew 91 responses from executives at 22 energy services firms and 27 exploration and production companies, along with 42 institutional investors — with 96% of E&P respondents expecting to raise production over the next year.
Survey shows near-universal intent to grow production in 2027
The jump from 88% to 96% in a single year is worth pausing on. But it’s the scale of the planned growth that really adds weight to that number.
Seventy-six percent of institutional investors report a more bullish outlook on energy over the past six months, and 61% have increased their net energy exposure.
Oil-weighted producers expect to increase output by roughly 10% over the next year, while gas-weighted producers are projecting closer to 5%. More than half — 56% — of E&P respondents plan to raise exploration and development spending in 2027. ATB Financial projects overall Canadian field activity and E&P capital spending to grow somewhere in the 5%–10% range next year.
What makes this especially notable is that companies aren’t banking on higher prices to justify the expansion. Most respondents actually expect oil prices to soften. The fact that producers are planning to grow anyway says something real about how the industry views its own cost structure and long-term positioning.
Improving oil price outlook and geopolitical supply concerns drive the shift
Short-term caution and long-term confidence are running side by side. While 61% of respondents expect WTI crude to ease from the roughly US$98/barrel average recorded during the survey period, the longer-term picture looks considerably more optimistic.
Fifty-three percent of producers and institutional investors now expect WTI to average above US$75/barrel over the next three to five years — up from 43% in spring 2026 and 38% in fall 2025. A steady climb across three consecutive survey periods.
Geopolitics is doing some of the heavy lifting. Disruptions to Middle Eastern crude oil and LNG exports have reshaped how investors think about supply risk: 79% of institutional investors say those constraints have made them more likely to invest in Canadian energy companies. Across all respondent groups, 72% believe long-term global crude supply-demand balances will be tighter than they expected before the conflict began.
That’s a significant reframing. Canada’s energy sector isn’t just being evaluated on domestic fundamentals anymore — it’s increasingly seen as a stable alternative in a world where geopolitical risk is repricing global supply.
Institutionalinvestors shift preference to growth spending over buybacks
For five years, the survey told a consistent story: institutional investors wanted energy companies to return cash, not spend it. That story changed this fall.
Forty-one percent of institutional investors now rank growth spending as their top capital allocation preference, up sharply from 18% in spring 2026. It’s the first time growth has led the rankings since the survey launched in 2021, when the industry was still rebuilding credibility with investors after years of overspending.
The broader sentiment shift backs that up. Seventy-six percent of institutional investors report a more bullish outlook on energy over the past six months, and 61% have increased their net energy exposure. Nearly four in five consider Canadian energy equities undervalued, and 63% expect the sector to outperform the S&P/TSX Composite over the next year.
That last figure is down slightly from 76% in spring 2026. But the direction of the other indicators suggests the pullback reflects more measured optimism rather than fading conviction. Confident — just not euphoric.
Energy services sector reports tightening capacity and improving margins
The services sector often acts as a leading indicator for what’s actually happening on the ground, and right now it’s pointing toward a busier 2027. Ninety percent of energy services respondents expect higher customer activity next year compared with 2026, and 71% report that their own business outlook has improved over the past three months. None reported deterioration.
Perhaps the most telling data point: for the first time since fall 2022, more services respondents report excess demand than excess capacity. A year ago, the sector was under margin pressure with capacity sitting idle. That’s a meaningful reversal.
Fifty-seven percent of services respondents expect margins to improve over the next six months. Rising input costs remain a concern — the survey doesn’t suggest the services sector is without challenges — but the overall direction is clearly toward tighter conditions and better pricing power.
Infrastructure project outlook Improves, but federal policy remains top risk
Respondents are increasingly optimistic about major Canadian energy infrastructure projects. Strong majorities expect positive final investment decisions for Pacific Link/Pathways, Prairie Connector, and Ksi Lisims LNG, with West Coast LNG expansion continuing to rank as the sector’s leading long-term opportunity.
Eighty-nine percent of respondents view the federal government’s approach to expanding the Canadian energy industry positively — a notably high figure suggesting the policy environment feels more supportive than it has in recent years. Federal energy and environmental policy still ranks as the industry’s top risk, though. Concerns have moderated compared with previous surveys, but they haven’t disappeared. That tension between improving policy perception and persistent regulatory uncertainty looks like a defining feature of the current moment.
What the survey tells us about where Canadian energy is headed
Taken together, the Fall 2026 survey paints a picture of an industry that has moved from caution to measured confidence. E&P companies are planning their biggest production push in years. Services firms are seeing demand outpace capacity for the first time in four years. Institutional investors — historically the most skeptical voice in the room — are now telling energy companies to spend on growth rather than hand cash back.
The shift isn’t happening in isolation. Rising long-term oil price expectations, geopolitical supply disruptions, improving infrastructure prospects, and a more favorable policy perception are all pulling in the same direction. The survey doesn’t guarantee that 2027 plays out as planned — oil markets are unpredictable, and policy risk hasn’t gone away — but the alignment of producer intent, investor appetite, and services capacity suggests the conditions for a meaningful growth year are in place.
Kelly is an experienced writer with 15 years of experience exploring the big stories that shape our world, from tech breakthroughs and space exploration to climate, energy, and the fascinating quirks of science. She has a talent for turning complex ideas into sharp, memorable insights that stay with readers long after they’ve finished reading.
