Cushing crude inventories have dropped to less than 25 million barrels as of early June—sitting less than 2 million barrels above the hub’s operational floor, according to Wood Mackenzie. The draw totaled 11.3 million barrels between early April and early June, pushing capacity utilization below 29%. That figure is closing in on the all-time low of 26.7%, which analysts treat as a reliable proxy for the minimum levels needed to keep the storage system functioning.
Cushing inventories near critical operational floor
What makes this moment stand out is the pace. An 11.3 million barrel draw in roughly two months is not a gradual seasonal shift — it is a rapid depletion that has left the buffer between current stocks and the operational floor exceptionally thin.
Wood Mackenzie tracks Cushing across fixed-roof tanks, underground caverns, and floating-roof tanks. That comprehensive coverage gives the firm more complete visibility than satellite-based alternatives, which cannot measure fixed-roof or cavern volumes. The assessment is unambiguous: current inventories sit less than 2 million barrels above minimum operational levels.
If draws continue at the current pace, Wood Mackenzie projected in mid-June that Cushing could reach its operational floor within one to two weeks.
Middle East conflict and export demand driving storage draws
The root cause of the draw is not a domestic supply problem. US and Canadian production has remained unaffected. Global supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict have pushed international markets toward US crude, lifting both export volumes and refinery run rates.
Dylan White, Director of North American Crude Markets at Wood Mackenzie, noted that shifting balances have contributed to steep US commercial storage draws—even as substantial Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases into Gulf Coast markets have added supply. Those releases have not been enough to offset the pace of commercial drawdowns.
PADD 3 inventories, covering the US Gulf Coast, have also been declining since early May. The pressure is not isolated to Cushing.
Pipeline flows and WTI price spreads respond to tightening storage
Markets are already adjusting to the physical stress at Cushing. Permian pipeline flows toward the hub have spiked as operators work to maintain the minimum inventory levels needed to keep the system operational—but that redirection carries a real trade-off.
Volumes moving to Cushing are volumes not reaching the US Gulf Coast, where storage is also under pressure. WTI price spreads between the two locations have tightened considerably as a result. As White put it, greater flows into Cushing shift volumes away from other key hubs where inventories are also low. The price signal reflects a physical system under genuine strain, not a financial market reacting to headlines.
Broader US storage draws could limit export capacity within months
The concern now extends well beyond Cushing. Wood Mackenzie expects storage draws to accelerate at key hubs across the US as Cushing approaches empty, projecting that critical inventory levels at other major hubs could be reached within one to two months if the current trajectory holds.
That timeline matters because of what US exports have been doing for the global market. American crude has helped offset supply losses caused by Middle East disruptions. If domestic storage continues to deplete, export capacity could eventually become constrained—removing one of the buffers that has softened the impact of lost supply elsewhere.
White was direct about the longer-term picture: “The inventory cushion is not infinite. If supply disruptions persist, oil prices are expected to reflect a significantly tighter physical market as stocks are depleted.”
The Middle East is at the heart of supply issues
The situation at Cushing has been a concrete, measurable sign of how Middle East supply disruptions are working their way through the global oil system. Inventories at the US benchmark’s physical delivery hub are within 2 million barrels of their operational floor—a margin that could close within weeks.
US domestic production has not faltered. Surging export demand and elevated refinery runs have drawn down commercial storage faster than SPR releases can compensate, and both pipeline flows and price spreads are already moving to reflect that stress.
The broader risk is a cascading tightening across US storage hubs over the next one to two months. Should that unfold, the US export response that has helped stabilize global supply balances may begin to weaken — leaving oil prices to absorb the full weight of a considerably tighter physical market.
Kelly is an experienced writer with 15 years of experience exploring the big stories that shape our world, from tech breakthroughs and space exploration to climate, energy, and the fascinating quirks of science. She has a talent for turning complex ideas into sharp, memorable insights that stay with readers long after they’ve finished reading.
