For the first time, solar power is on track to outproduce coal across Texas’s main electricity grid — not by a narrow margin, but by a wide one. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that utility-scale solar generation in ERCOT will reach 78 billion kilowatthours in 2026, compared with 60 billion kilowatthours from coal — marking the first year solar surpasses coal on an annual basis within the grid that serves most of the state.
EIA projects solar to outpace coal in Texas grid by 2026
The shift is not subtle. Solar’s share of ERCOT’s generation mix climbed from 4% in 2021 to 12% by 2025, while coal’s share fell from 19% to 13% over that same period. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook captures that trajectory and extends it forward, projecting that the gap between the two sources will widen through 2026 and beyond.
Natural gas remains the dominant force in ERCOT, averaging 44% of the generation mix from 2021 to 2025. But within the renewables-versus-fossil conversation, the solar-coal dynamic is what’s shifting most visibly.
Rapid solar capacity additions drive the shift
Texas is expected to account for roughly 40% of all utility-scale solar capacity additions in the United States in 2026. That concentration of new build reflects both the state’s land availability and the sheer scale of its electricity demand growth.
One project illustrates the pace well. The Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS project — a combined solar and battery energy storage system — is rated at 837 MW and is projected to be the largest solar photovoltaic project coming online anywhere in the country in 2026.
On the coal side, there is no comparable activity. The EIA’s Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory shows no new coal plants planned in ERCOT. The asymmetry is blunt: one fuel type is adding capacity at scale, the other is not adding any.
Monthly crossover already occurred in 2025
The annual crossover forecast for 2026 did not arrive without warning. Solar first exceeded coal on a monthly basis in ERCOT in March 2025, when solar generation reached 4.33 BkWh against coal’s 4.16 BkWh — a narrow margin, but one that held.
Solar continued to outpace coal each month from March through August 2025. The seasonal pattern matters here. Solar output peaks in spring and summer, while coal tends to recover relative ground in colder months when sunlight hours shrink and heating demand rises.
That same pattern shapes the 2026 forecast. EIA projects solar will exceed coal from March through November of that year, with December being the one month coal is expected to retake the lead. The annual total still favors solar by a wide margin, though the monthly picture reflects a more dynamic back-and-forth.
Outlook extends into 2027 as demand continues to climb
If 2026 marks the first year solar surpasses coal annually, 2027 looks set to widen that gap considerably. EIA forecasts ERCOT solar generation will reach 99 BkWh in 2027, compared with 66 BkWh for coal, with an additional 11.8 GW of solar capacity expected to come online that year.
Demand is climbing too, driven by cryptocurrency mining operations, rapid data center expansion, growing industrial activity, and oil and gas refining and production. That growth creates pressure to add generation capacity quickly — and solar is currently the primary answer. By 2027, EIA forecasts solar will exceed coal for every month except January and December. The window in which coal holds a seasonal advantage is narrowing year by year.
Key takeaways
The core finding from EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook is straightforward. Solar generation in ERCOT is forecast to reach 78 BkWh in 2026, surpassing coal’s projected 60 BkWh — the first time solar has exceeded coal on an annual basis in the grid covering most of Texas. By 2027, that gap widens further to 99 BkWh versus 66 BkWh.
Sustained solar capacity additions are driving the shift, with Texas expected to host roughly 40% of U.S. utility-scale solar builds in 2026. No new coal capacity is planned for ERCOT. Natural gas continues to dominate the overall generation mix, but within the broader energy transition, solar’s rise past coal represents a concrete and measurable milestone. The monthly data from 2025 makes the point clearly — the annual crossover in 2026 is not a projection built on optimism. It is an extension of a trend already underway.
Carlos is an engineer with strong expertise in technical and industrial topics. He previously worked at international companies such as Siemens and speaks Spanish, German, English, and Italian.
