U.S. natural gas consumption for power generation is on track to hold flat this summer — then break records. In its May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration projects the electric power sector will burn through 43.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) from June through September, matching last summer’s level exactly. By summer 2027, that figure is forecast to surge to 46.1 Bcf/d — a 6% jump that would top the previous record, set in 2024, by 3%.
EIA projects flat natural gas power use in 2026, record in 2027
The 43.7 Bcf/d forecast for summer 2026 is not a sign of stagnation. It sits 4% above the five-year summer average from 2021 to 2025, meaning the sector is already running at an elevated baseline. What makes the number significant is that it holds steady even as overall U.S. electricity demand is expected to grow 2% this summer.
The more telling story arrives in 2027. The EIA’s projected 46.1 Bcf/d would surpass the previous record — set just two years earlier, in 2024 — by 3%, and that pace of acceleration over such a short window points to something structural rather than seasonal.
Renewables offset gas growth in 2026, but demand surge drives 2027 record
Why does natural gas use stay flat in 2026 despite rising electricity demand? Renewables. The EIA expects increased renewable generation to absorb much of the additional load this summer, effectively limiting how hard gas-fired plants need to run.
That buffer has limits, though. By 2027, the scale of new electricity demand outpaces what renewables alone can absorb. The EIA forecasts renewables will account for 25% of U.S. generation in 2027, up from 21% in 2025 — meaningful growth, but not enough to prevent a record gas burn.
The demand behind that 2027 surge is concentrated in the commercial and industrial sectors, particularly in the West South Central and Mid-Atlantic regions. New data centers and large manufacturing facilities are cited as the primary contributors, drawing heavily on the grid for both production and cooling. That creates a sustained, year-round load that intensifies during summer peaks.
Texas and Virginia lead commercial and industrial electricity demand growth
Two states stand out in the EIA’s regional analysis: Texas and Virginia. Together, they anchor the grid regions forecast to see the sharpest increases in commercial and industrial electricity demand.
In the West South Central region — dominated by Texas — commercial and industrial demand is forecast to rise 20% from summer 2025 to summer 2027. Data centers and large facilities are pushing up commercial demand, while growing electrification in the oil and natural gas sector is lifting industrial consumption from a separate direction entirely.
ERCOT, which manages the grid for most of Texas, is expected to meet that rising load with more output from both natural gas and solar. Natural gas generation within ERCOT is forecast to increase 22% over the same two-year period — a substantial ramp-up for a grid already known for tight summer capacity margins.
Virginia is driving parallel growth within PJM Interconnection, the grid spanning the Mid-Atlantic region, with data center expansion as the primary catalyst. PJM natural gas generation for electricity is forecast to rise 6%, or 9 billion kilowatt-hours, in summer 2027 compared to summer 2025. Solar generation within PJM is also forecast to climb 32% over that period, an indication that the region is adding capacity on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Long-term shift from coal to natural gas and renewables continues nationwide
The 2027 forecast does not represent a sudden departure. It reflects the continuation of a decade-long realignment in how the U.S. generates electricity during summer months.
Over the past ten years, coal’s share of summer generation has steadily declined as natural gas became more cost-competitive and renewable capacity expanded. Solar has been the fastest-growing source within that renewable shift. PJM’s trajectory illustrates the pattern well: the region has consistently increased its reliance on natural gas as gas-fired generation displaced coal across its footprint.
The EIA’s May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook treats these as structural trends, not temporary fluctuations. The flat 2026 number and the record 2027 figure both fit within the same long-term arc.
What the EIA’s forecast ultimately shows is fairly straightforward. Natural gas power consumption will hold at 43.7 Bcf/d this summer — elevated by historical standards but unchanged from 2025. In summer 2027, it is projected to reach 46.1 Bcf/d, a new record driven by data center and industrial growth concentrated in Texas and Virginia. Renewables will grow alongside gas, not instead of it, reaching 25% of U.S. generation by 2027.
Carlos is an engineer with strong expertise in technical and industrial topics. He previously worked at international companies such as Siemens and speaks Spanish, German, English, and Italian.
